Jeju Island, December 17, 2009
ICLEI Korea Office Training Program
William Cannon Hunter, Ph.D.
College of Hotel and Tourism Management
Kyung Hee University
AN OVERVIEW OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO
INTRODUCTION
The actions of humankind in the contemporary era of mass industrialization have created an unprecedented emission of ‘Greenhouse Gasses’ (GHG) that accumulate in the atmosphere, and intensify the Earth’s natural heat-trapping mechanisms. If quantities of GHG’s in the atmosphere continue to increase the average global temperature will continue to rise and the severity of the effects of this trend will become disastrous. Climate change, global warming and the ‘greenhouse effect’ have become household words and are generally understood as being directly connected to the choices we all make related to the consumption of energy. It is up to local leaders and policy makers to come up with sustainable solutions to counteract, mitigate or even reverse the trend of global warming. To this effect we are meeting today to discuss the problem of climate change and the essential components of its development as an international discourse, a collection of policies and a social trend.
Top Five Causes of Global Warming
· Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning power plants;
· Carbon dioxide emissions from burning gasoline for transportation;
· Methane emissions from animals, and agriculture such as rice paddies and from Arctic seabeds;
Deforestation for wood, pulp and farmland;
· Increasing use of chemical fertilizers on croplands.
CLIMATE CHANGE: LEADING CAUSES AND EFFECTS
Climate Change Facts
· According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) It is more than 90% certain that humans cause global warming;
· Eleven out of 12 of the past years were the hottest since we began recording annual temperatures, since 1850 and it is certain that the last 50 years were unusual for at least the past 1300 years;
· CO2 is released into the atmosphere at the rate of 1000 tons per second, and these emissions are mostly from burning fossil fuels;
· Greenhouse gas levels are the highest in the past 650,000 years and concentrations of CO2 are 35% higher than pre-industrial levels. Methane concentrations have increased 250% and these emissions are caused by human activity;
· Global warming produces severe weather and rising sea levels, drought, flooding, heat waves and intense typhoons and cyclones;
· Global warming is predicted to get much worse and by 2100 global temperatures will increase 2-11%.
· Global warming will affect millions of people by 2100 in loss of habitable land and deaths caused by heat, famines, scarcity of drinking water, disease and forest fires;
· 25% of the world’s species could be lost from the effects of global warming including 1,000,000 plant and animal species if temperatures continue to rise;
· China will soon surpass the United States as the #1 greenhouse gas generator, building one coal-fired electrical plant per week over the next ten years;
· It is too late to stop global warming but we can limit it, and we can still prevent the most extreme scenarios for global warming.
Ten Key Effects of Global Warming
· Forest Fires are more intense and last longer;
· Living monuments of cultural heritage are destroyed by extreme weather;
· Mountains are growing due to the loss of glacier ice;
· The exosphere (outer atmosphere) loses density causing problems with satellites;
· Biodiversity is lost and the likely survivors are pests;
· Permafrost is melting;
· Lakes are draining – 125 lakes in the Arctic have disappeared;
· There are new plant habitats forming in the Arctic;
· Animal species are migrating to new habitats (ex: jellyfish);
· More aggravated and aggressive allergies due to pollution and rising pollen levels.
More Effects of Global Warming
· Rising Sea Levels: Hotter temperatures melt glaciers, sea ice and polar ice sheets, resulting in higher sea levels.
· Shrinking Glaciers: Tundra once covered with thick permafrost is melting and glaciers are deteriorating (see Montana’s Glacier National Park and the Himalayan Glaciers that feed the Ganges River);
· Heat Waves: Extreme heat waves now happen two to four times more often and can cause wildfires, heat related illness;
· Storms and Floods: In 30 years, the occurrence of super typhoons and hurricanes have doubled;
· Drought: Other parts of the world suffer from drought, an increase of 66 percent leaves a shrinking water supply and decrease in quality agricultural conditions, putting populations at risk for starvation;
· Disease: Warmer temperatures and floods and droughts create environments where mosquitoes, ticks, mice and other disease carrying creatures can thrive;
· Economic Disasters: Severe weather, disease and other large scale problems cause billions of dollars in damages;
· Conflicts and War: Climate change can affect access to quality food, water and land and can lead to global security threats, conflicts, and war. In Sudan’s Darfur, the current conflict can be attributed to drought;
· Loss of Biodiversity: As many as 30 percent of plant and animal species alive today are at risk for extinction. Desertification and rising sea levels threaten human as well as other animal and plant habitats;
· Destruction of ecosystems: Destruction of ecosystems increases carbon dioxide emissions and threatens supplies of fresh water, clean air, fuel and energy resources, food and medicine.
Notable Losses – More Effects of Global Warming
· Loss of Kilimanjaro’s snowy peak by 2040;
· Threats to the Netherlands and the city of Venice;
· The loss of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains;
· The loss of Chamonix glacier in the Alps;
· St. Andrew’s Golf Course (Scotland) submerged by 2050;
· Threats to cultural heritage sites in Egypt, Cambodia and elsewhere.
A SHORT HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/
This Panel was formed in 1988 to monitor and confirm the existence and impacts of climate change and it produced the first Report on Climate Change in 1990. Since then 4 Assessment Reports have been generated, and the Fifth AR is in progress. A high level Summit on Climate Change was held at the UN Headquarters in NY on 22 September, 2009. The IPCC was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) “to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences”. More information can be found at the UNEP home page: http://unep.org.
Rio Earth Summit & United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
In 1992 the UNFCC was signed by 178 countries to implement policies that return human caused worldwide greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 (186 countries have now signed). At this United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, the ‘Rio Declaration on Environment and Development’ was signed:
Conference of the Parties
The Conference of the Parties was formed as the governing body of the Convention on Biological Diversity and is in turned governed by UNEP and WMO. An overview of its Meetings and access to reports are available at: http://www.cbd.int/convention/cops.shtml or via the homepage: http://www.cbd.int/.
The Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol was developed in 1997 at the 3rd Meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 3). The Protocol was developed to remedy the lack of specific language or policy in the original UNFCC. Representative of the UNFCCC parties’ vision, it was a binding treaty to be ratified by 55 industrialized countries that produce 55% of the worlds GHG’s. Ratified in 2005 after Russia, a necessary signatory accepted. The Protocol requires the US to reduce GHG’s to 1990 levels during the period of 2008 to 2012. The US has not ratified the Kyoto Treaty. The Kyoto Protocol works by way of three market based mechanisms:
· Emissions trading – known as the ‘carbon market’;
· Clean development mechanism (CDM);
· Joint implementation (JI).
The entire Kyoto Protocol can be read here: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html, and a quick summary can be read here: http://www.alternate-energy-sources.com/Kyoto-Protocol-summary.html
In 2000 at COP 6 held at The Hague further developments were made concerning the Kyoto Protocol, including:
· The “flexibility” mechanisms of the Protocol;
· “sinks”, a.k.a. land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF);
· north-south cooperation, including capacity building, technology transfer;
· adverse impacts of climate change and of response measures in vulnerable countries;
· methodological issues and communication of/review of information;
· a compliance system.
The Congressional Report for Congress (United States), 2006
Summarizes the major scientific and policy issues surrounding the Climate Change debate and summarizes the COP meetings 1-11 and their actions: http://ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/06Sep/RL33602.pdf. A 2008 update highlights the decline in honey bee colonies: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33938.pdf.
The Davos Report, 2007
Tourism is the world’s largest industry and both affects and is affected by climate change. The tourism industry grew 2% in 2008 to reach 922,000,000 international tourist arrivals and expenditures of USD$944 billion in spite of the global financial crisis. More facts can be found at: http://www.unwto.org/index.php
The United Nations World Tourism Organization is responsible for the Davos Report (advanced summary can be read here in its entirety: http://www.unwto.org/media/news/en/pdf/davos_rep_advan_summ_26_09.pdf) that states that even if the effects of climate change are mitigated, ‘tourism’s geography will shortly change forever’. The report was presented at the Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Davos, Switzerland, 1-3 October, 2007.
Threats to tourism’s iconic destinations and the environment in general are listed here: http://www.travelmole.com/stories/1129949.php.Threats to world heritage are also highlighted by the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage List http://whc.unesco.org/en/news/356.
The Bali Climate Summit (COP 13)
In 2001 at this summit, US President George Bush declares Kyoto Protocol ‘dead’. The Protocol will expire in 2012 and the COP 15 in Copenhagen marks a critical juncture in the global Climate Change Policy debate. At this conference the Bali Road Map was ratified, consisting of a number of decisions that are essential to reaching a secure climate future. The results of the Summit can be read at: http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_13/items/4049.php
COP and Copenhagen, 2009
COP15 Copenhagen (http://en.cop15.dk/?gclid=CK_zh_6-vJ4CFRlcagodyVQLkQ) marks a critical juncture in the Climate Change debate and as the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012 draws near, the pressure is on. An IIED briefing (November 2009) for journalists is found here: http://www.iied.org/pubs/pdfs/17074IIED.pdf. This United Nations Climate Change Conference might not yield a new global climate treaty but there is hope that it will close with arguments on four political essentials:
· quantification of industrialized countries’ GHG emissions;
· the control of emissions growth in China and India;
· the financial management of emissions in developing countries; and,
· the general management of money.
ICLEI Programs and Partners
ICLEI (Local Governments for Sustainability) is an important inter-governmental and global organization that is highly concerned about climate change and strongly recognizes the importance of local action. It was established in 1990 in NY with support from UN and IULA (currently, UCLG) at the inaugural conference, World Congress of Local Governments for a Sustainable Future at the UN, NY. The ICLEI World Secretariat has been hosted by the City of Toronto since 1991 and organizationally consists of: 8 Regional Secretariats/Offices (North America, Latin America, Oceania, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe), 5 Country Offices (Canada, US, Mexico, Korea, Japan) and the ITC International Training Center.
The Vision is based on: local governments, sustainable development, and a worldwide presence. The Mission is “to build and serve a worldwide movement of local governments to achieve tangible improvements in global sustainability with special focus on environmental conditions through cumulative local actions.” Important campaigns include: CCP, Water Campaign, Biodiversity, ecoBudget, ecoMobility, Energy efficiency and Renewable Energy Campaign. Currently there are 814 cities, towns, and counties that are full members and they represent 68 countries. Another 20 countries have associate members, including 39 organizations and individuals.
ICLEI collaborates with a number of other organizations, including: UCLG, WMCCC World Mayors Council on Climate Change, C40 Cities, UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNEP UN Environment Program. ICLEI is a very important organization because it functions at the local level, to ensure that climate change protection policies are implemented that includes tangible and attainable objectives. It is an organization that works in collaboration with other global organizations and local governments on a variety of important programs.
Currently there are 1,107 cities, towns, and counties that are full members and they represent 68 countries. Another 20 countries have associate members, including 39 organizations and individuals. The ICLEI Korea Office is located in Jeju City, and ICLEI members in Korea include the City of Seoul, City of Suwon and the City of Incheon.
In Korea, Local Government Members include:
Seoul Metropolitan City
Busan Metropolitan City
Gwangju Metropolitan City
Daegu Metropolitan City
Incheon Metropolitan City
Ulsan Metropolitan City
In Gyeonggi Province: Gyeonggi Provincial Government, Namyangju City, Kimpo City, Bucheon City, Gwacheon City, Seongnam City, Yangpyeong City, and Suwon City
In Gangwon Province: Gangwon Provincial Government, Hoengseong City, Wonju City, Pyeongchang City, Jeongseon City, Gangneung City, and Sokcho City
In Chungnam Province: Chungnam Provincial Government, and Geumsam City
In Junbuk Province: Jeonju City
In Junnam Province: Yongin City, Suncheon City, Hadong City, and Damyang City In Gyeongbuk Province: Gumi City
In Gyeongnam Province: Changwon City
In Jeju Province: Jeju Provincial Government, and Jeju City
Important campaigns include:
CCP, Water Campaign, Biodiversity, ecoBudget, ecoMobility, Energy efficiency and Renewable Energy Campaign.
Biodiversity
To assist local governments in their efforts to conserve and sustainably manage biodiversity. The initiative recognizes the important conservation role that local governments play as front-line managers of biodiversity. At the same time it reflects the relevance of healthy and functioning biodiversity for local governments to deliver the broad range of services to their citizens.
Climate
The Cities for Climate Protection TM (CCP) Campaign assists cities to adopt policies and implement quantifiable measures to reduce local greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and enhance urban livability and sustainability.
EcoMobility
To develop mobility without dependency on the private car. It includes ‘walking-cycling-wheeling’, non-motorized means of transport ‘passenging’ and using means of public transport
Local Agenda 21 (LA21) Campaign
The Local Agenda 21 (LA21) Campaign promotes a participatory, long-term, strategic planning process that helps municipalities identify local sustainability priorities and implement long-term action plans.
Sustainability Management Instruments
Sustainability Management supports local governments to develop and apply innovative management instruments with the goal of achieving sustainability.
Sustainable Procurement
Sustainable procurement means thinking carefully about what you buy: buying only what you really need, purchasing products and services with high environmental performance, and considering the social and economic impacts of your procurement.
Water Programme
Local government policies and practices to manage water resources in a sustainable manner while meeting human needs for water supply and sanitation for current and future generations
Other Climate Change Organizations
C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (http://www.c40cities.org/)
World Mayors Council on Climate Change (WMCCC) - ICLEI Initiative http://www.iclei.org/index.php?id=7192
Naysayers and their Arguments: ‘Climategate’, Myths and the Response
“The planet hasn't warmed since 1998, and -- according to satellite measurements -- has cooled significantly in the last two years”: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/24/the_climate_change_hoax_99281.html
“The scandal surrounding the exposure of the global warming emails could be called "Climategate" (a real cliché), the Great Climate Change Hoax, or just, as Andrew Bolt said of it, the greatest in modern science” http://www.globalwarminghoax.com/news.php
Climate Change Update Senate Floor Statement by U.S. Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-Okla)January 4, 2005:
“As I said on the Senate floor on July 28, 2003, "much of the debate over global warming is predicated on fear, rather than science." I called the threat of catastrophic global warming the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people," a statement that, to put it mildly, was not viewed kindly by environmental extremists and their elitist organizations. I also pointed out, in a lengthy committee report, that those same environmental extremists exploit the issue for fundraising purposes, raking in millions of dollars, even using federal taxpayer dollars to finance their campaigns.”
http://inhofe.senate.gov/pressreleases/climateupdate.htm
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/senator-inhofe/
Sierra Club of Canada – Ten Popular Myths about Global Climate Change:
http://www.sierraclub.ca/national/programs/atmosphere-energy/climate-change/ten-myths.html
Climate Change is not a hoax:
http://kabukabu.instablogs.com/entry/is-climate-change-the-greatest-hoax-ever/
Wired Magazine, ‘Climate Change is Inevitable – It’s Time to Adapt’:
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2009/11/st_essay_globalwarming/
CLIMATE CHANGE AND LOCAL ACTION
What can you do for the environment, to best mitigate climate change trends? The traditional ‘waste hierarchy’ that refers to the 3R’s, Reduce, Reuse and Recycle is a concept that has been in circulation for over a decade. The aim of the waste hierarchy is to extract maximum practical benefits from the products we consume. The hierarchy moves from most favored to least favored alternatives as follows: prevention; minimization; reuse; recycling; energy recovery; and, disposal. Re-thinking our lifestyle choices is the first step to mitigating the effects of climate change which is itself, the effect of pollution. At this site are 10 steps to reducing energy use and expense. Less energy use means less dependence on the fossil fuels that create GHG’s: http://environment.about.com/od/globalwarming/tp/globalwarmtips.htm
· Reduce, reuse and recycle;
· Use less heat and air conditioning (insulate);
· Change light bulbs (use compact fluorescent light bulbs - CFL’s);
· Drive less and drive smart;
· Buy energy efficient products and avoid products that are excessively packaged;
· Use less hot water;
· Use the off switch;
· Plant a tree;
· Check local utility company for ‘home energy audits’ or rebate programs; and,
· Encourage others to conserve.
Another set of suggestions can be found here: http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/save-environment/
· Use less electricity;
· Read newspapers on your computer;
· Use public transport or bicycles;
· Recycle as much as you can;
· Force your politicians to take your environmental concerns seriously;
· Avoid using products of companies that harm the environment;
· Sensitize your children;
Other Online Resources for Local Government Leaders
The World Wildlife Fund (WWF)
http://www.panda.org/how_you_can_help/greenliving/
Environment Canada
http://www.ec.gc.ca/education/default.asp?lang=En&n=129C994E-1
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/wycd/home.html
Time Magazine Online
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,1602354,00.html
Make your own list for your community…
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